In Brief Litecoin price rose 5% to retest $100 on Tuesday morning, but historical data suggests LTC will likely retrace as the halving date draws closer. With the Halving date now 21 days away, LTC miners utilizing Antminer L7 ASICs have surprisingly offloaded 90,000 coins in July, taking advantage of the current high Litecoin prices. Aggregate order books of exchanges also reveal that sell orders are rapidly outpacing LTC buy orders.
Litecoin price experienced a 5% surge, reaching $100 on Tuesday morning. However, historical data indicates that LTC is likely to retrace as the Litecoin Halving date approaches. The question arises: Are miners using Antminer L7 gearing up for a sell-off, anticipating challenging times ahead?
The much-anticipated Litecoin Halving is scheduled for August 2, 2023. Despite the recent price surge, major stakeholders across the LTC ecosystem seem to be adopting bearish positions.
Historical on-chain data highlights Litecoin’s recurring “price crash” trend in the weeks leading up to previous halvings in 2015 and 2019.
During Litecoin’s first-ever Halving event in 2015, LTC price peaked at $7.54 on July 10 but subsequently slid 42% to $4.40 on the Halving date of August 5.
A similar pattern occurred in the 2019 cycle when LTC price reached $142 on June 23, only to decline 53% to $93 on the halving date of August 5. The post-halving downtrend persisted for several months until Litecoin initiated another rally in January 2020.
Could history repeat itself this year?
Notably, Litecoin miners utilizing Antminer L7 ASICs have been depleting their LTC reserves in July after accumulating 300,000 coins in June. Data from IntoTheBlock’s Miner Reserves shows that between July 5 and July 11, Litecoin miners offloaded 90,000 coins, indicating their intention to book profits at the current prices.
Historical price data from 2015 and 2019 demonstrates that LTC price experienced significant declines immediately after each Halving. To capitalize on the post-halving selling frenzy, many miners often sell part of their reserves as the date approaches. This has historically caused LTC prices to crash before the Halving dates. If history repeats itself, the ongoing Litecoin price rally may be short-lived.
In further confirmation of the bearish outlook, many Litecoin holders have placed sell orders ahead of the Halving. Currently, there are 414,000 LTC coins listed for sale, while only 411,000 LTC coins are actively sought by potential buyers, according to the Exchange On-chain Market Depth chart.
The data reveals an excess supply of Litecoin on exchanges compared to demand, further indicating a potential price correction if the bearish momentum intensifies as historical trends suggest.
LTC Price Prediction: Possible Decline Toward $80
Considering the historical trends and bearish factors, it is likely that LTC will drop to around $80 in the coming weeks. A drop below $90 would provide further confidence for a reversal. However, a group of 1.26 million investors who bought 11.8 million LTC at an average price of $88.42 might create a support buy-wall to prevent a significant loss.
Conversely, if LTC manages to overcome the $100 resistance level, the bulls could maintain control. But a group of 572,000 investors who bought 3.63 million LTC at a minimum price of $100.95 might inadvertently trigger a pullback if they decide to sell amid the uncertainty surrounding the Halving.
While unlikely, if the resistance is broken, LTC could potentially reach a new 2023 peak of $120.
In summary, as the Litecoin Halving approaches, LTC miners utilizing Antminer L7 ASICs have been offloading coins, suggesting a potential price correction. Historical patterns and the current market dynamics indicate that Litecoin may experience a downturn before the Halving.